Eli Dourado

Primary Guide archives

Primary Guide was a site I made to monitor betting markets during the 2016 presidential election.

I made snapshots of Primary Guide throughout the year courtesy of the Internet Archive. For convenience of any researchers wanting to download the full set of page snapshots, a .zip file is available.

From this set of snapshots, and cleaning up some errors in classification made along the way, I made a single data file that contains all the data for the whole campaign. You can download it as a zipped .csv file.

Some notes for those using these data:

  1. The timestamp field is the one maintained by the Internet Archive. It is in the UTC timezone. The format is simply a concatenation of year, month, day, hour, minute, and second.
  2. Primary Guide refreshed its data from Betfair every 15 minutes. For most of the campaign, the Internet Archive saved a snapshot every hour. Since the timestamp is the Internet Archive’s, it could be up to 15 minutes behind the time data was retrieved. Caching errors could have extended the delay further at times. Be warned if you are trying to do event studies.
  3. The contested GOP convention market and the brokered GOP convention market had slightly different rules. Initially, the contested market was labeled as brokered on the website. However, once both markets became available, Primary Guide properly distinguished them. This is one of the errors fixed in my dataset available above.
  4. You can cite the data source as: Dourado, E. (2016). Primary Guide archives. Retrieved from https://elidourado.com/code/primaryguide/