Eli Dourado

Election 2020

President

WinnerRDEVsΣ Exp R EVsΣ Exp D EVsGuess R EVsGuess D EVs
StateRDEVsExp R EVsExp D EVsGuess R EVsGuess D EVs

Congress

MajorityRepublicanDemocratNeither
SenateRepublicanDemocratFlip?

Research has shown that probabilities derived from betting markets are more accurate than polls at predicting political outcomes. This page lists estimated probabilities of each party winning each state in the 2020 U.S. presidential election. It uses data from Betfair to perform the estimation.